Change is hard. We as human beings are biased towards status quo and many times resist changing even in the face of evidence. Research shows that companies almost always allocate resources on the basis of the past rather than future opportunities.

How does the world ahead of us change? There will be more discontinuity and volatility. Smooth upward curves, long held assumptions are no longer valid and previously powerful business models will not be successful.

Why will the road ahead be different? There are three major forces at work:

  1. Emerging markets: previously unknown cities will be significant economic players, especially in China. Offerings may vary by city within the same country.
  2. Connectivity: 20 years ago less than 3% of the world’s population had a mobile phone and less then 1% was on Internet. Today 2/3 of the world’s population has a mobile phone and 1/3 is on Internet. Business can start and scale at a breathtaking speed.
  3. Aging: the world’s population is getting older and could plateau which may lower the consumption and constrain the economic growth.

These forces will make tomorrow different from today and call for setting a new strategic direction.